Jalyukt Shivar Abhiyan, a New drive in Water Management!

Jalykukt Shivar Abhiyan, my understanding of the same.

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The Maharashtra government has launched, with Pani Foundation, water conservation scheme named Jalyukt-Shivar Abhiyan to make Maharashtra a drought-free state by 2019. The program aims to make 5000 villages free of water scarcity every year. Jalyukt-Shivar Abhiyan means a journey towards village surroundings full of water! This is all done by Shramdan, self help, people of all walks of life offering free services, in most cases manual hard work. These groups have people who live in those villages. The drive has caught on very well and Hindi film hero Amir Khan has driven this movement by providing celebrity support and perseverance . He has taken along with Hindi film fraternity, Marathi film personalities like Sunil Barve and others too! I am sure this will help in sustaining the drive. Their organization provides technical support and training to people for correctly doing these things. It is because of the leadership and drive provided by personalities like Amir Khan, there has been a good progress. I am told that the government agencies are also waking up, albeit slowly, because the Chief Minister Mr. Fadnavis is also giving great push to this drive.

I am trying to understand why such tough situation has arisen. Along with increase in population, need for more crop production has also become essential. There are some crops like sugar cane which need large amount of water per acre. India’s sugar production has reached a level of 30 million tons against the requirement of 25 million tons. So, this is excess production! The rain is the only primary source of water for us in agriculture and day to day life; but nobody can be sure that the rain will definitely fall on specific days. Hence, we have gone for water irrigation in a big way, by building dams and canal system. Water available for irrigation is again dependent on rains! But irrigation can also reach limited areas. So, at some stage, this water is not going to be available for farming till the next rain cycle. India is not a country of perennial rains and we have our rains in specific months due to south west or north east monsoons. People started reaching out to third source of water, the wells and so they starting using ground water. Again, the same cycle repeats here and we are dependent on rains, when wells dry out. That is the phase where people started using bore well technology to get water from the ground. It will be good idea to know how we ground water is stored. This will really pin point real problem we are facing.

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The study of water flow in aquifers and the characterization aquifers is called hydro geology. An aquifer is an underground layer of water-bearing permeable rock, rock fractures or unconsolidated materials (gravel, sand, or silt). Groundwater can be extracted using a water well. The study of water flow in aquifers and the characterization of aquifers is called hydro geology. Related terms include aquitard, which is a bed of low permeability along an aquifer, aquiclude (or aquifuge), which is a solid, impermeable area underlying or overlying an aquifer. If the impermeable area overlies the aquifer, pressure could cause it to become a confined aquifer. So water availability really depends on unconfined acquifers. Though other areas under ground store water, this is a a very slow process and impermeability or low permeability does not allow water to reach confined acquifers quickly enough. Once we start touching these storage areas, we are in trouble.

Why have the water conditions gone from bad to worse? What does the Jalyukta Shivar Abhiyan do to change this situation? The government of Maharashtra has a law which forbids drilling of bore wells beyond 250 feet or 80 meters. Is there any cross check on this? No, the bore wells have been drilled to the depth of 250 meters, 3 times the allowed depth. How many bore wells can be drilled in an area? My friend Shende told me the other day that in Solapur district where he does farming, in an area of 4.5 to 5  sq km, there ten thousand bore wells! To me this is beyond indiscriminate, it is criminal. When he told me this number, I could not believe it so I asked him again and he said the figure is right. If you try to suck ground water from so many wells what will happen? You don’t get water even at the depths of 250 meters. Ok, our population has gone up so we need more water, crops which need a lot of water are planted in abundance, sugarcane is the prime example of that. In India, this year we have manufactured 30 million tons of sugar against our requirement of 25 million tons. International sugar prices are already low so there is a big problem! On top of that we do this indiscriminate pumping. We don’t need experts to say what will happen!

What is being done under Jalyukt Shivar Yojana? The main aim is to increase the water table levels in areas where possible. This is done by various methods. Over a period, top soil in many areas becomes impermeable. Trenches are dug, contour digging on slopes is done. This increases the ability of the soil to absorb water. All the actions that are taken are to ensure that during rainy season, the water that we get, seeps to the water table in the area where this work is done. When these actions are not taken, the top soil in that area would be like “opaque glass”. The water would not seep but would flow away to other areas, making the top soil only wet and causing erosion. When the dredging is done by various methods, the soil becomes like “transparent glass” and water seeps through easily.

I asked my friend Shende what benefit they are expecting after this year’s work. He said that last year, only 1 % of their water needs for farming were met. They expect that after this year’s monsoon, because of the work being done, the availability should go up to 25%. They expect water table to come to the level of at least 80 meters. This is quite a jump but nowhere near what they need. What should the society do in general? First and foremost is the discipline; unless we follow basic discipline of depth of bore well, water table issues will continue. Secondly, maybe people should try and cultivate products which are suitable to the water availability. When we don’t use ground water, it does not go anywhere. It remains there. But out of fear that others will use the water anyway, everybody breaks the discipline. The thought process is probably, if I do not get it then I will not let others also to get it.

Let us not forget that earth is the only natural resource that human race has. Once any resource gets depleted, it can take thousands and thousands of years to regenerate it. By pursuing this current drive relentlessly, we will probably get a method, whereby we may be in a position to get water regularly for agriculture and drinking! The nature does not have द्रौपदीची थाळी, a Marathi idiom for unlimited resources. We think it has. Civilizations in olden days have gone down the drain, no pun intended, over a period of time due to indiscriminate use of natural resources. Cape Town in South Africa will become water less in a month of two. There is a serious a discussion going on to pull some Icebergs towards Cape Town, to get fresh water. To me this is the first step towards disaster, in terms of bore well we are trying to dig to 120 meters! So let us heed to such warnings unless we want to be left water less and I don’t know what worse scenarios.  Honestly I can not imagine one!

EV’s! The Eco System Disruptions!

Are we prepared for major disruptions in many Eco System due to advent of EV’s?

Below is an article which informs us about governments seriousness regarding introduction of EV’s in India. It is hoped that at least 30% of all new new vehicles by 2030 will be EV’s. Last year, government ordered 10000 EV’s and there is a plan to order the same quantity this year too! Government is also encouraging bus fleets to buy Electric buses. Himachal Pradesh has ordered 25 such buses and are being run in hilly areas. I saw a few of them plying, during my recent holiday in Manali.

http://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/centre-launches-national-e-mobility-programme-10-000-more-e-vehicles-to-be-procured-59845

What EV’s are going to do to various Eco Systems? When we discuss EV’s, discussion is about pollution, how long petroleum products will last etc. There is also a discussion about petroleum cartel holding human race to ransom. But there are many more disruptions that need to be considered. These are not only for individuals but for various agencies like government, businesses and many other systems. These need to adapt, change and modify to suit new environment created by the EV’s.

Take the case of governments tax collection. Tax collected on petroleum products are so huge that these are almost 100% of the price of the petroleum products. At every stage tax is collected. From refining, to distribution to sell. Both central and state governments will start losing this revenue when critical mass of new EV’s is reached. 2030 as indicated in the above mentioned article, may be that year. Government needs to find methods to make up for this revenue loss. Not all revenue will be lost but there will be a loss of big chunk. Another issue is the “fuel” that will replace petroleum products will be electricity which traditionally is being manufactured in Public sector. This fuel cannot be taxed very heavily,  as its usage will be multi-purpose, vehicles, industrial and domestic usage.

Another major change that has to happen is the growth in production of electricity. If this continues to happen using petroleum products, then pollution will come out of chimneys instead of car exhaust systems. Main thrust appears to be on solar systems but they will also have their own issues which need to be tackled in parallel with increase in production. Another method that is being undertaken is nuclear power. This will also help the ecosystem to achieve the same goals.

Why would people switch over to EV’s? In case of buses, since it is a public transport this can happen faster if funds are made available. These organizations are anyway public sector. Of course, cost of the vehicles needs to come down. From present knowledge, it appears that maintenance cost will be lower. With decrease in Electricity price, battery replacement costs may also become quite manageable over a period of time, due to mass production.

But the real numbers will be coming in cars. Why will people change over to EV’s, the cars? Cost of ownership is the going to be the answer. This is made up of Price of the Vehicle, Cost of servicing, cost of repairs, resale value and ease of use. To me the last factor is also very important though it is not a tangible factor. All other factors have been there in IC engine cars too! But this is a new factor that has come up. We are all used to just using the key to go where ever we want; if required, we go to the petrol pumps and fill it up! With EV’s it may not be as simple, to start with. We need to plan, we need to have cars that will give more mileage per charge. The current charging technology available takes about 30 to 40 minutes minimum, to fully recharge. How fast this technology will improve? Will the charging time reduce to 5 minutes or some such time? Only time can tell. This brings us to charging stations, which is going to be a factor by itself!

EV’s will need charging stations, bus operations will have their own stations. But cars will need a huge number of charging stations. In India, we should not forget two Wheelers. Two-wheeler companies are also thinking big in terms EV’s and those numbers could be large. First and foremost is going to be the charging time! Unless this reduces drastically, number of charging stations needed will be a big challenge! So, to me this improvement to around 5 minutes or less is almost mandatory! I am sure the improvement in battery technology will increase the capacity of batteries which in turn will increase per charge running of vehicles. Who should invest in charging stations? Who will invest in charging station? Current Oil companies can take up onus of this, being public sector companies. Chicken and egg situation will prevail in initial phase. Charging stations first or EV’s first will be the dilemma! ROI on charging stations will be tricky and priorities is going to be an issue. Till IC engine vehicles are manufactured, they will keep on having the pressure of exhaust pollution control. By 2030, something equivalent of Euro 8 or 9 standards will be prevalent.  Car companies and Oil companies both will have to invest a lot on pollution control during this phase, along with investments in EV’s. This is tricky because nobody can predict the speed at which proliferation of EV’s will take place. Lest we forget, EV’s are Zero pollution vehicles!

About charging stations, will the government agencies build them or private agencies build them? Private companies have an option of not building them. There will be  individuals who may have proper parking space in office or at their home. They will build their own station but that number is going to be small, at least to start with. But looking at vehicles parked on roads even at night in cities, common charging stations, like petrol pumps, looks to be the only way. Can there be a “Charging Station Cess” on all new vehicles sold? Will it be acceptable to burden IC’s engine car buyers to benefit EV buyers? Can local governments take part in this, in cities where EV’s will be sold in large numbers? When will they know the trend? When will they decide to do it? All these questions do not have easy answers, but these issues need to be resolved.

The drive train in IC engine cars, starting from Radiator and ending with Exhaust pipe, will be replaced by about 18 parts, maximum. Out of these, the motors and gear are the only so called moving parts! When there are less moving parts, there will be less repairs needed! In fact, Tesla is offering life-long warranty for their cars. So, the car service industry will be the first victim of EV introduction. Today major chunk of repairs after warranty period is over, are the drive train parts. When these repairs are simply not needed, will the service industry be viable at all? Will manufacturers offer the paid service life long, through owned outlets. This is already happening in spare parts business, where component manufacturers find it difficult to compete with the vehicle manufacturers.

Another major disruption will be component industry and their basic vendors like casting, forging industries and their allied industry. These industries today, employ millions of people. Since there will a major disruption in this eco system, things are going to be tough. If a certain business simply ceases to exist, what do you do in life? Not everyone plans 10/15 years in advance. By the time they realize this, it could be too late! This group of business men will have business knowledge but may not have where withal to completely switch over to something new! How many will be smart enough to change to a totally new and/or unconnected business?

Friends, I have seen my city Pune change from use of carriage pulled by horses (called tanga), to auto rikshas, to Ubers and Olas. Tangas simply don’t exist now! I have observed that riksha business will also taper off over a period of time. Riksha is not an elegant mode of transport and it appears that young generation does not want to come in this business, as it is NOT COOL! The advent of Metros in the city in next three years will push Rikshas and even Uber/Ola! I will definitely use a Metro, if possible! When I talked of major disruptions, I was talking of obsolescence too! History has been harsh, and there is no replacement or option for obsolescence. If a system has to go, it has to go whether it likes it or not! It is like death, one has to accept it. Welcome to the brave new world of EV’s.

I am the best!

Going up the value chain is the only option!

Our Tera Firma is full of smart people. In last 50 to 70 years the innovations, evolution of technology has gathered momentum which is far swifter than what happened in previous 2000 years. This has happened because of the people who besides being smart, innovative were humble too or may be some of them were not! They knew that any idea that becomes popular may easily get pushed aside by a better idea or a product. Maybe some of them hardly had any choice as one can’t stop advent of new things especially in technology area. 

Digital cameras is a classic case of the  inventor  being  flat  footed.   Digital  cameras  were  invented  by  Kodak ,  the  pioneer  in  cameras  and  films.  They  invented  the  digital  camera  but  apparently  forgot  about  it. Later Cannons and   Konicas  of  this  world  just  blasted  Kodak  out  of  business  by  bringing quality, reasonably priced digital cameras in the world in large volumes. By the time Kodak woke up it was too late! They went into bankruptcy. Now these same digital cameras are being included in cell phones. These cameras in cell phones, are becoming better and better. So, what is the future of digital cameras as we know them? Honestly, it is difficult to judge but is it possible that digital cameras will come with a SIM card in future or we may have cell phones with better and better cameras. I am not talking fantasy. Recently I read that Jio, Mukesh Ambani’s company is bringing out Laptops with SIM cards with the idea of always being connected. Then do you need WiFi? I don’t know what this will do to the current market conditions. However, there are already cheaper hotspot devices, with 4G, available in the market. For a fee of Rs.400/ per month this hotspot can be connected to 10 devices. Then will we need SIM card for an individual Laptop? This is how the technology is changing swiftly. All the current and new players in the market will have to come up with their own variations to ween away customers towards their technology!  

Electric Vehicles, especially cars, were considered as niche products in the market and maybe people thought that they were competition, at US $ 100,000/ price, to high end cars like Mercedes, BMW and Audi. This was only a couple of years back. Besides Tesla, other car makers are also showing nimbleness. They have already come with their own EV’s and going strongly in bringing EV’s in mass production.  The other car makers already know how to manufacturers millions of cars, so once they master Electrical drive train technology at a competitive price, things will change drastically. What will happen to today’s drive train industry? We don’t know. But there is a good chance that this industry will become sunset industry. Maybe 20 years? I have had a discussion with couple of friends who are running allied industries in auto field. They are worried and are already thinking in terms of change over. Their nimbleness will help them. But a few others are still saying that EV’s is a passing fad! For their sake, I hope they are right but my mind tells me otherwise. They are “I am the best” types.

We see similar case in Indian IT industry. Our IT business was started by doyens of IT industry. They have done a fantastic job of bringing India on world IT map. Indian IT business grew by leaps and bounds and has created technology culture in India. They also created large number Indian millionaires and now billionaires. Their contribution has helped India in other sectors! They have made India confident too. But during last few years there have been signals, that this model of service providers is not going work for a long time. Indian companies need to go up the value chain. These companies on Nasdaq are officially described as “Providing technology consulting, application, system integration and engineering services” that means these are service industries. In India, they call themselves as software  companies.  It is with this false nomenclature they have started thinking that are software product companies.  They started the culture of people sitting on bench, as per demands of their customers. For those who don’t know the meaning of “sitting on bench” this is what happens. The customers ask the service providers to ensure that additional 20% people are assigned to the project but they have no work. If the project is of 2 years duration,  then   these 20% folks have no work for two years.  What culture have we developed? Should we not be going away from this method? 20 is a substantial % to be forced to remain idle. This according to me is poor management, in crude language run by bean counters. Is profit the only motive? What about the career of 25/30 year old young people? Once they get used to this life, they would be happy to remain idle, if possible, all their life!

Once there was a meeting between a doyen of IT industry with CEO of an American company.   The American company is a world’s top end product company employing 5 thousand people   where as the Indian company employs  1.5 lacs people.  Out of 45 minutes meeting the doyen talked for 40 minute and the CEO for five minutes. Both their turnovers are same. Doyen never felt it necessary to find out how the same turnover is achieved with so few people. He must have got same opportunities to talk with many such people world over but probably, “I am the best attitude” has kept the thought process where it was ten years back. I hardly read any news about this company trying to go up the value chain. Attempts made by a new CEO were brought to null by the doyen with his “Expert” knowledge! In such fast changing world, even a year or two of sluggishness, can put a company under severe strain; but maybe these “Limited” companies are “personal limited” companies even though share holdings of the doyens are low. Going up the value chain, what is that? I know how to run this company. “I am the best.”

All the best to Indian IT industry and hope better sense will prevail at some stage. I have seen enough small companies which have made software products and are up the value chain. Typical case is “Tally”. They have made an ERP suitable for India and millions of copies have been sold. Quick Heal is another company that comes to mind. Their security products have become well known. For both these companies their Profit/Turnover per employee is pretty good. If these smaller companies can do it why all the service giants  cannot do it? They have mountains of cash reserves. They don’t know what to with it. Is it the proverbial  Ostrich’s head in the sand?

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

 

 

Game Changer or Disruption!

EV is going to be new beast compared to todays cars!

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I have been writing about Electric Vehicles; for updates I keep on talking to people in the industry, read on the net and am lucky enough to have someone in Tesla to update my understanding of EV’s. I am no technical expert in this field but I can feel that something big is definitely happening. Hope I am able to see some of these major changes in my lifetime. I was lucky to be part of two such events, Internet and Cell phone. These two disruptions have  changed the way our world has been operating! When Jaya was in the US for her MS, 1980-8;  talking to each other on phone, needed a lot of coordination. We did not have phone at home. So, she would write to me the timing when she would call, that too at someone else’s place. If we were lucky she could get through after ½ hour delay! By next year, I am told that cell phones can be used during the flights too!  That is game changer!

In IC engine cars, the Engine has been the heart for more than 100 years, and car performances have been defined by the quality of the engine! Then the quality of the overall car is said to be better when the exhaust system and engine jointly released least amount of pollutants. Of course, now exhaust parameters are mandatory world over. By 2023 these parameters will be so tough that company like Volvo has already declared that they have decided not to develop any new diesel engines post 2023, as development of the same will not be cost effective! Plus, cities and countries are slowly banning diesel cars to be driven within their boundaries.

The drive train today, is placed physically in between tyres, from front bumper to rear exhaust system! This whole drive train is being replaced in EV’s, (as shown in pictures above) so what will decide the quality of EV’s? What is the Engine for EV’s? The Motors, the electronic controllers, battery pack, inverter and  gear. So, the car which travels more distance per charge, which accelerates faster will be a better car, all are zero emission cars anyway! No, it is not that simple! This is just the beginning of the car revolution! The batteries will have better charge storage per unit area, they may cost lesser and lesser over a period of time but this becomes  commercial aspect. To me battery packs are petrol tanks! Better battery only increases the capacity of the “new petrol tank” and distance traveled per charge!

Major parts in the new drive train for cars are going to be the software and the sensors that are going to be there in a car, besides the battery pack, motors and ECU’s. Around 2010, some vehicles had software with about 10 million lines of codes! In 2016 it is supposed to have increased by 15 times to about 150 million lines of code! The software is related to car autonomy, safety and infotainment related codes. But this is going to change even more drastically over period. The whole system might become  a computer in the car! The car recalls will not be because of faulty clutch or a gear box it will be because of software glitches and sensors!

The cost of software currently in large cars can be about 10% of the Bill of Materials but is likely go up in next 10/12 years to 30%! So, this is going to be the first game changer. What happens to current vendors of engine parts? As the population of EV’s starts increasing, the population of new IC engine cars is going to come down! Instead of one set of vendors, who make drive train parts, new set of vendors from IT industry and electronic industry will take over! So, need for physical RM will start getting replaced by “products” which cannot be seen by naked eye! Players who are currently tier 2 or tier 3 vendors may start becoming tier 1 vendors. At the same time car manufacturers may stand on the toes of Operating system vendors so that they can control the distinct facilities they can offer. This cannibalization is already being observed in case of battery manufacture! Vehicle manufacturers themselves are producing battery packs now. In IC engine cars, batteries have a small functional role whereas in EV’s it is going to be the new “Petrol”! OPEC, I am sure is already having sleepless nights or nightmares!

It looks like software will follow the path of infotainment innovations, autonomous driving capabilities, intelligent safety devices which will be able to work even if some part of software fails! The software will integrate with hardware in the form of sensors! This my friends, is going to be future drive train! The whole system over a period will be of increasing complexity which will need newer and newer algorithms and will generate such a huge data that all the data generated from these cars will have to be stored to cloud! One important aspect of new drive train is temperatures; these are almost at room temperature compared to IC engine cars where exhaust temperatures can go upto 600 deg c! This normal temperature in “New Engine” will allow usage of lot of electronics, sensors, software and ECU’s.

What do we foresee? Basic car with body, trim, seats etc which will keep on changing as is happening now. But it is the “New Engine” in the form of sensors, software, ECU’s and cloud computing that will change the car and make it a different beast than what we see today!

First and foremost will be the infotainment area which will have full connectivity with our single “communicator” which is currently our cell phone! It will have all these functions plus, music, internet hookup, reverse drive screen, automatic parking capabilities. This will use cameras in place of mirrors and it will also be the GPS display screen! What new functionalities will be added is anybody’s guess! Next consolidation will be ECU’s. Currently, there are 8 to 10 of them per car. These will be consolidated over a period, to one or two ECU’s which will handle all functionalities . The “real engine” will be controlled through these ECU’s along with other systems like wipers, window regulators, AC’s and so on. Next important aspect is, each vehicle will generate so much data that storing the same can be an issue. So, all this data will be transferred to cloud. This data can be used for analysis, diagnostics, on improving performance of the vehicle. This will be real life data and give the car makers real life continuous flow of information; product improvement cycles will be much shorter! In most cases in future, product errors will be related more to sensors and software. Software errors can be updated easily by releasing patches to all concerned cars as these cars will always be connected!

Another game changer will be what is going to happen to car service industry! Cars will go to workshops only for sheet metal work! Or small odd jobs! This will also affect vehicle manufacturer’s spare part sales; we know that drive train component manufacturers, will go down over a period! These components will exist only for old cars as no new cars will not need their products!

Another new area that will come up is third party software products! We really don’t know what these products are going to be! Most of the products will be available for passengers, as the driver naturally cannot use them while driving. Oh, I forgot we will have driverless cars at some stage, then all are going to be passengers. So, possibilities are simply unlimited!

I could write on and on and on! Let us wait and watch; there have been car racing games for computers. But now you will be having computers which drive real life cars on real roads! That too on their own! As a game changer or major disruptor of business, it’s a great thing for humanity. But for those who are in business of making current drive train components, it’s going to be a nightmare. As my friend had rightly said during a discussion, “I am ok with this change because it is for my next generation to handle this and not me because real inflexion point could be 2030, by that time I will retire!”

 

Is it three cheers for EV’s or one cheer?

EV’s are here to stay!

The other day I was at a party held by foundry technology experts group to commemorate an individual landmark. Fish, chicken and various tikkas were available in abundance. Liquor was flowing and I was as usual high with my drink H2O on the rocks! Different subjects were being discussed, old memories were shared. It was a fun atmosphere. I asked someone who is in foundry related service industry, “What do you think will be the effect EV’s on your business? And when do you think it will start affecting your current business?” He was very candid and said, “Yes, this is going to affect my business in a big way, that may be felt from year 2030. But then by that time it will be for my next generation to handle it, and not me!”

There were 2/3 others in this discussion. One of them was a foundry expert plus, energy consultant. Another person was a foundry expert for an International giant for Asia Pacific region. I am none of these but as a hobby, I read a lot about Electric Vehicles and consequently about Energy situation. It was mentioned that one the industrial giants, Kalyani group is already jumping the EV components bandwagon. Tata, Mahindra, Suzuki-Toyota combine, Hyundai (they claim that they will launch their first EV in India ahead of Suzuki-Toyota combine in 2019 itself.) will be four major players in India; for these four mentioned companies, it is imperative to be in EV market. Suzuki manufactures and sells more than 50% of their global production in India. Hyundai’s India % is sizable. Tata/Mahindra are local companies so they have to do it and have started off well in EV’s. My other friends were arguing that that 2030 is too early but inflexion point for production will come around 2040 which is 22 years hence.

(Point of Inflexion means a moment of dramatic change, especially in the development of a company, industry, or market.) 

Another argument was about power availability in India. I felt that people’s information on power situation in India was a little dated. India has jumped the power bandwagon in a big way. Solar and wind power may not need long distance transmission of power as is normally done, thereby reducing transmission losses. It could be done locally and there are huge number of diesel engine run water pumps in India, in rural areas. I will not go into details of whether this achievable but I can say that power generation costs have come down in India by using non- conventional methods; one tender was sanctioned in Gujarat in Dec 2017, at Rs.3/ per unit as against Rs.6/ plus of coal and fossil fuel methods.

http://powermin.nic.in/en/content/power-sector-glance-all-india

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_India

These links give details about power generation situation in India as on Dec 2017 and renewable energy projections upto 2022, respectively. The argument in the party was that current power production is way below even today’s needs, so how can India feed EV requirements. When fossil fuels rates are controlled by Arabs how will we get cheap power? The two links clearly show that the current power generation situation is not as bad it is thought by many. In some areas in India there is a power surplus. Our current problem is that the grids are not able to distribute the power from surplus areas. As more and more power in India is going to be generated by non-conventional sources like solar and wind, price reduction  of power will quickly happen and capacities will be added faster! This is already happening in Germany and in California!

According to my understanding the Point of Inflexion for introduction of EV as a product reached long back. In September 2017 total EV production in the world was 1,23,000 which was 56% above 2016 Sept sell. Extrapolated to yearly sale it will be 1.45 million against world production of around 90 million. This is about 1.6%. This indicates that point of inflexion of product proving is crossed. There are reasonable number EV’s on the road. Major manufacturers like VW, Toyota, Ford, Nissan already have big plans for EV’s which will start rolling out in larger numbers.

In the discussion I was having, someone had a view that EV is just a passing fad and will die soon. IC engines can never die! This I felt was a very naive thinking. This gentleman also suggested that many products showed a lot of initial potential and then died. There are two strong reasons why this will not happen for EV. First is pollution. Delhi, London, Beijing and many others are classic examples of what havoc pollution can do. World is not left with many choices but to get pollution free methods of motoring around. Secondly, countries which have large amount of fossil fuels currently, control the economy and inflation related issues. World already has said enough is enough. Big searches for different methods are underway for alternative fuel. Already some major cities and some small nations have started creating laws which will be effective in not allowing diesel cars within their limits ; later on they will not allow even registration of fossil fuel cars.

Smaller companies have already made their foray into electric tempo, riksha. These are one of the most polluting vehicles. This is a good sign as the last mile is always tricky. These are not very costly and fancy vehicles, so big shots will not be interested. Another good sign is people are also talking of making ships run on EV! It is doable, weight and space is not an issue for them. Buses appear to be next after cars but I am reading about leading companies like Hero, Bajaj and Honda foraying into Electric two wheelers.

So, whether we like it or not, whether we know about it or not, whether we want it or not EV’s are here to come. So, during my next party with H2O on the rocks discussion will be more about when and not about “if” of EV’s. Cheers!

Net Neutrality!

Is Net Neutrality the way?

Net neutrality is the principle that Internet service providers must treat all data on the Internet the same, and not discriminate or charge differently by user, content, website, platform, application, type of attached equipment, or method of communication. For instance, under these principles, internet service providers are unable to intentionally block, slow down or charge money for specific websites and online content.

 For example, imagine someone using a paid service from a website, regularly. That person does a lot of purchases on the site. If there is no net neutrality, the service provider will have the authority, in connivance with the web site, to allow faster access to large customers! It is like mother giving additional cookie to favourite child! In certain cases, they may block access to you! To avoid such situation Net Neutrality is essential.

Discussion on this subject has started recently in the US. Internet was born with Neutrality and US government under Trump for their own reasons want to end Net Neutrality. Main thing is that nobody “owns” internet! Internet is a service created by scientists which has changed the world beyond imagination. It is a rare service which is independent of language, nation, cast and creed!

A couple of years back Facebook tried to bypass Net Neutrality with a concept called Free Basics, in India. They said after arrangement with some service providers, if a user has fully used his usage limit, he will still be allowed use of Facebook. This is the first step away from Net Neutrality. If this were allowed, then service providers would have made their own rules slowly and allowed access as was beneficial to them. Government of India came down heavily on them and stopped free Basic from rolling out.

Today there is a news that in the USA, that FCC has repealed all the laws set by Obama administration to keep Net Neutrality. Is this the beginning of war on the net? Does it mean that there will be rich man’s internet and poor man’s internet? Does this mean that if you pay more fees then you will be able to sit in the first-class lounge?

People who are for non-neutrality argue differently. They claim that they will provide basic services to all in the same way; however, those who pay more money will get services even if their package has been used up. But what about those who already have unlimited package? Will the speed remain same for them beyond “fair” usage? Will they get lesser priority beyond a certain limit? Who will decide fair usage? Once the discrimination is allowed then it will be impossible for anyone to track what certain sites do or what certain service providers do? Agencies cannot track these misdemeanors.

In Portugal, something similar is already happening. Even though they are under EU laws, each country has its own bit of freedom. Portugal is allowing their ISP’s to play around a bit. Large ISPs have given every indication that the idea of freedom costing extra isn’t too far from their ideal. And abusing a lack of broadband competition to force users to shell out additional funds to access to the content and services of their choice isn’t too far off of what has already happened;  AT&T had decided to block Facetime from working unless users shelled out for more expensive plans, or Verizon’s had decided to charge users $10 more just to avoid arbitrary video throttling. This is going to happen! 

All these years internet is being treated on par with Electricity, Water usage. For using these services, one did not have to do anything special. If you used more electricity or water, you paid more. These utilities never say, we will give you xxx units only. You pay more then only you get additional usage. Or since you are not our priority customer, water pressure will be low at your end.

I feel that jury is still out. But with USA formally declaring internet as “Non-Neutral”, we will know the real meaning of the same over a period. Portugal has done it, but they have done it in a small way and discretely. There is another argument for “Non-Neutral” internet; the proponents of this are saying that there will be large investments in internet technology because of new policy. According to them there are “serious” users and “non-serious” users. Majority are of the second variety. For them probably internet will continue to be available as it is available today. Serious users may not mind paying a little more for additional, better, faster and un-restricted services. On the other side Netflix has already shown how people love to use it. So they already have an upper hand on the ISP’s!

Friends, I am non-serious user of internet. Will it really matter to me about net neutrality? Honestly, I do not know and only time can tell. New internet order has just started today, formally. So let’s wait and observe.

Data, the New Oil!

Walk through of benefits of big authenticated data!

In one of my blogs, I had used a statement by Mukesh Ambani, “Data is New Oil” My friend Ajit suggested that I elaborate on the statement. So here we go!

We have been using oil and Petroleum products, extensively during last century! Initially, the approach taken by westerners was flamboyant! They went to the desert land of Arabs and extracted oil at a decent profit. In early 70’s in the last century, Arabs realized that they were sitting on a goldmine and rest as they say is history! From desert kingdoms, where the countries were mainly run by expats, these countries have become rich countries and are sitting on a mountain of money! This was all due to correct commercial exploitation of Oil as a resource and later squeezing non-oil producing countries!

Current century is the century of data as we have already started observing. A lot many things happen digitally and there is tremendous amount of data that is getting generated and obviously being stored somewhere! The country, the businesses which will harness the power of data, already available, will become leaders in their own field. How to exploit this data? For doing any digital transaction, authentication is mandatory. We started with passwords, spoken word and so on for authentication. Indian government had a foresight to start creating a database of people in India and issuing digital identity to people called Aadhar. Aadhar has Unique identification which is biometric. This is THE ultimate method of authentication. Aadhar UID is the largest such data of population with authenticated identities in the world.

Due to this authentication method, many things can be done digitally. First and foremost, what Aadhar has achieved is to bring large number of poor people in India into formal system; this allowed these people to open zero balance bank accounts, to start with. Large number of populace has been outside the formal system all along, because of non-inclusion! Non-inclusion was because these people did not have any formal identity! The inclusion will increase GDP as transactions made by these people will get added in the formal system. The same poor people, get subsidies from the government. There has been extremely high leakage of subsidy as this money did not reach the right people. In the system when black money gets generated, it goes out of circulation and formal economy gets affected. With Aadhar, subsidies go directly to people’s bank accounts.

These are some of the effects of large amount of authenticated data being available. There are more advantages of authenticated data. During GST returns filing, it is mandatory to share that month’s sales figures with authorities. Now government will link this data from GST returns to Income Tax returns filed. Naturally, the values must match. If they don’t, the tax evaders can be easily trapped. This change will happen because of linked data. According to some estimates India’s GDP is much higher than what is seen on paper; this is because cash or black money transactions remain outside the formal system. Black money is the money on which income tax is not paid. When all transactions happening in India become above board, real GDP figures will be known. Data is the way for that! GST data will be huge data but putting it to proper use is going to be the key to success. Initially people required PAN cards for some financial transactions but there was no real authentication done while issuing them. With the result that people had several PAN cards making it easy to cheat. With Aadhar linking of PAN cards, each person can have only one PAN card. Power of authenticated data!

What is being linked to Aadhar? Bank accounts & FD’s, LIC and other policies, Mutual fund investments, Cell phones and many more things. These instruments are used by all people irrespective of their status whether they have black money or tax paid money. Authorities can link all this data from huge data bank and link it with Income Tax data base. I need not elaborate what will happen as the result of this linking.

Ambani’s cell phone company Jio has sizable data of their subscribers. Subscribers are registered using Aadhar card. Jio has plans to compete with Amazons of the world with a different business model. It is said that not even 10% of population buy their stuff on the net! Jio will provide discount coupons to the subscribers for local shops, within their cities and preferably in the vicinity. These subscribers will go to the shops using their cell phones & linked coupons will buy things they want and pay the vendor. These vendors will be local grocers, fruit wallas and will compete with Amazons through Jio. The vendors phones and customers phones are linked via Aadhar to handle the payment part.

Another business process that is being tested in China which can be adopted with or without modification in India. Someone wants to buy stuff from a vending machine. After items are selected, the person gives iris scan. This scan is linked to Aadhar card to Credit Cards (if they survive technology onslaught) or bank account. Payment is done using iris scan. Can it get easier? Just imagine that your Iris scan is going to be your credit/debit card, online banking and wallet all rolled in one!

Already there are apps like True Caller! If you have True Caller installed on you cell, any unidentified call received is checked by the app on huge data, thereby displaying you the name of the person calling you!

Another large data that is captured these days is the data from cars. Cars these days have a lot of censors to track and send the data to servers. Such sensors are now functional on normal cars like VW Golf also! High end cars are even more data hogging. What do we do with this data? I will give a couple of examples. Vehicles performance like engine performance, oil levels are captured. In case of some issues in the car, diagnostics is done quickly as data is always available. In VW Golf, if you get flat tyre, and someone else is using your car; your registered cell phone will receive a text message “Your front right side tyre shows reduced air pressure”! There are lot of such messages received when something goes wrong with the car. Driverless cars and EV’s are next in line. They will all capture very large data from all cars. How this data will help? Diagnostics, design improvement, performance fine tuning. Important thing is nobody must go and capture data!

I feel that, in India, data is going to help reduce corruption and black money due to Aadhar linkage. Data has already brought large number poor people in the formal financial system. Data will give true picture to the planners of the nations. All this will allow the nation and thereby people to prosper. The correctly authenticating data is the way to go forward. Looks like iris scan is the proverbial golden wand to do it!  On the technical side data will allow new business processes to evolve; some of which don’t even exist today. Speed of doing research and analysis will become fast. New products, new methods, new medicines will get evolved much faster. All the speed and accuracy due to authentic data will be a real boon to human race!

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