China is an enigma. The Chinese culture has been tricky right through thousands of years of history. But during the last fifty years, Chinese thinking has changed. They have done exceedingly well during this period and have rapidly gone up the pecking order in terms of GDP. It is predicted that they may go ahead of the US in less than ten years. How have they done this? How have they achieved this? Simple. Hard work, a bit of copying and not bothering about intellectual property rights. Chinese dictatorial regime helped to do all this. I am all for the authoritarian regime if they wanted to achieve tremendous financial progress. But in the last few years, they have started showing the true colours with their actions.
They want to become numero uno power globally and do not now care what methods they are using. Let us look at our neighbours Sri Lanka and Pakistan. For around a decade, China has a policy of “helping” countries by giving them soft and sometimes not so soft loans for the “Belt and Road” initiative!
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, or B&R), known as One Belt One Road or OBOR for short, is a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in nearly 70 countries/international organisations.
Sri Lanka and Pakistan have later found out that this initiative was equivalent to what loan sharks do in real life. These countries are financially so weak that they are not in a position to repay the loans. In Sri Lanka, they gave a loan for developing the Hambantota port with a lure that it will attract many ships from a vital sea route below Sri Lanka. Nothing of that sort happened, but China has now taken control of the port a few hundred miles below India’s southernmost tip!
Pakistan has also fallen into the same trap. Gains there are even more lucrative for China. China is getting physical access around Ladakh and Kashmir! How do you think the Galwan clash began? The idea was to try and push Pakistan to give up that area and gain control over Himalayan high plains to consistently have better access to attack India, at will!
Pakistan and Sri Lanka OBOR’s purely India centric acts- to corner India.
Since Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the initiative in 2013, the World Bank estimates about $575 billion worth of energy plants, railways, roads, ports and other projects have been built or are in the works across the globe. Its progress has slowed recently, dogged by accusations that China is luring poor countries into debt traps for its own political and strategic gain.
So the Chinese “ACTION” began sometime back, and it culminated into the Galwan clash. This was when the world realised what China has been trying. China, the “World’s Factory”, captured large businesses unaware of what they were doing. Everybody was happy with good quality inexpensive components, products and a massive market for finished goods. But when China switched directions as they did with Belt and Road initiative, the whole world missed the markers.
I will share one more example. This happened in Canada just after the COVID issue had begun outside China. In May last year, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau endorsed the deal with CanSino — a company funded by Beijing and producing its vaccine with the People’s Liberation Army.
Canada’s National Research Council (NRC) announced that it has abandoned its partnership with Chinese company CanSino Biologics because China’s government continued to block vaccine materials to Canada. (Incidentally, Jaya had taken training at NRC way back in 1981 for three months!)
The NRC — which is part of the Ministry of Innovation, Science and Industry — has received about $44-million since late March in 2020 to upgrade Montreal’s production capacity to prepare materials expected from CanSino.
That is China for you! How to handle China is going to be the main problem in future. Dealing with China is so complex it’s produced its own lexicon: Engagement. Containment. Confrontation. Constrainment. Even “con-gagement.”
The words reflect the dilemma for governments facing a power that is no longer simply “rising.” The leadership under Xi Jinping believes China is now strong enough to forcefully assert its agenda both at home and abroad because it has reached the point it can withstand whatever penalties come on the way.
China’s imposition of a sweeping national security law on Hong Kong despite global outrage indicates the change. A deadly military skirmish on the border with India and China’s aggressive pandemic-era diplomacy are the latest examples of how Western policies have largely failed to shape, slow or stop China.
The latest they have come up with is the Chinese Visa for Indian nationals. They have now made it mandatory to have a certificate of having taken the Chinese vaccine dose to get the visa. Of course, post- Galwan, India has also started acting forcefully about blocking some Chinese apps in India. India has changed the tender terms for some contracts to ensure that the Chinese companies will not participate. But in general, we know that we cannot totally stop mutual business with China- so we can do it selectively.
But today’s global situation is such that nations and societies are interdependent, but China has managed to control these things more favourably. Slowly global business leaders are also acting. Samsung and Apple have moved its production base from China to India for some products- the number two best location in terms of size and skillsets!
The open policies toward China from the US and the European Union were well-intended and mutually beneficial, hoping that China will join or at least learn to conform to the free world order. But with growing economic power and military might, it’s becoming apparent that Xi thinks the order under the Chinese Communist Party is superior, and they want to conquer and display where possible.
QUAD, the initiative between the US, India, Japan and Australia, is a good beginning. The QUAD had been formed in 2007 but has become active now! Nations, it appears, have understood the importance of coming together. The countries have to realise that they have to agree with each other on some issues and agree to disagree on others. The good old days of the Iron curtain and others are long past. Today the need would be to be together where possible on mutual things. But it is a MUST to be together against the Chinese Dragon!